Normally on the eve of the French Open, the king of clay, Rafael Nadal, is everyone’s overwhelming favourite. However, that’s not the case this year, for some people anyway. Novak Djokovic conquered in Madrid, Fabio Fognini defeated Nadal on route to winning the Monte Carlo Masters, and clay-court specialist, Dominic Thiem, beat the Spaniard on his way to winning the title in Barcelona.
Nadal did bounce back to his best in Rome, cruising to a record ninth title, after defeating Djokovic 6-0 4-6 6-1 in the final. Yes he bageled the world number one. I wasn’t massively surprised that Nadal lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas, Thiem and Fognini this season, for a couple of reasons. He has off days, he is human after all, and everyone plays their absolute best against Nadal. A career win over him on clay is something you can look back on forever, it’s that big of an achievement for these players, which is a testament to how good Nadal is. The second reason being, they are three set matches. Top players can match Nadal for two or three sets, but it’s nigh on impossible to stick with his level for a five set match, with his 11 French Open titles proving that. He has that mental advantage at Roland Garros, he’s just the king. Opponents walk out to face a gladiator on the opposite side of the net, knowing they are facing an all but impossible task.
So, after a below-par clay court season, is Nadal still the favourite to claim his 12th crown in Paris? Absolutely yes. Nadal could be 45 years old and playing on one leg at Roland Garros, and I’d still find it difficult to back against him. He’s just a relentless champion, and it would take the performance of a lifetime from someone to dethrone him. His main danger is obviously Djokovic, who is chasing down Roger Federer’s grand slam record and hunting for his third consecutive grand slam in the process. If Djokovic can cruise to the later stages of the tournament, we could be in for a memorable final between him and Rafa. Thiem and Tsitsipas will be heading to Paris full of confidence, after starting their seasons so well, but Nadal is definitely the man to beat.
Looking away from the pre-tournament favourites, I expect Diego Schwartzman and Marco Cecchinato to go on deep runs in Paris.
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